Trump’s tariffs raise concerns about potential effect on global trade: ACI – The Times of India

MUMBAI: The current reintroduction of tariffs by the US under President Trump’s second term has raised concerns about potential disruptions to global trade, which could indirectly affect international travel demand, said the Airports Council of India (ACI) World in its advisory bulletin. This comes following a year during which global passenger growth faced significant uncertainties that stemmed from evolving economic and geopolitical landscapes, it said.
Additionally, ongoing supply chain challenges and production delays from aircraft manufacturers, as well as continuing geopolitical tensions, continue to pose a risk to growth opportunities by potentially altering flight routes, increasing operational costs, and affecting passenger sentiment, said ACI.
But in 2024, the industry reached a significant milestone, with global passenger traffic not only recovering but also surpassing the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, marking a new era of growth, said the bulletin.
” By November 2024 year-to-date (YTD), global passenger traffic increased by 8% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 103% of the November 2019 YTD level. While the domestic market grew by 3% YoY (also reaching 103% of the 2019 level), the international market played a key role in driving the recovery, with a 13% YoY increase, reaching 102% of pre-pandemic levels. However, recent monthly data suggests that the global recovery pattern may have reached its plateau, indicating a transition from post-pandemic rebound to a more stabilised growth phase,” it said.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global passenger volume was estimated to reach 11.4 billion passengers in 2024, or 124% of the 2019 level. The current projection of global passenger volume in 2024 is set to reach 9.5 billion passengers (to be confirmed by ACI World in July 2025), which is 104% of the 2019 level, or 9% YoY growth from the 2023 volume. Emerging and developing economies are projected to mark higher growth rates than advanced economies, notably, with the Middle East and Asia-Pacific leading at a 5.2% and 5% CAGR between 2024 and 2030 respectively, outpacing the global average of 4%.
In 2025, global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 9.9 billion with a 4.8% YoY growth rate. While passenger demand remains strong, the pace of expansion is expected to slow as markets shift from recovery-driven surges to structural, long-term growth patterns. Key challenges such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and airline capacity constraints are expected to increasingly shape the industry’s trajectory. In advanced markets, demand stabilisation, supply chain bottlenecks in aircraft production, and airport capacity shortage may temper growth, while in emerging markets, high infrastructure investment and rising middle-class travel demand will likely continue to drive expansion. As the industry moves into a new era of growth, the airport industry must focus on financial viability, operational efficiency, and sustainability.
From 2024 to 2043, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% to reach 17.7 billion passengers. Based on the latest data, long-term forecasts now estimate a loss of 3 to 4 years of growth potential in global passenger traffic. By 2045, passenger numbers are expected to reach 18.7 billion, approximately doubling the 2024 level. Looking further ahead, passenger traffic is forecast to reach 22.3 billion by 2053—approximately 2.4 times the 2024 projection—driven by a CAGR of 3% between 2024 and 2053, it said.
As recovery neared completion in 2024, the balance between domestic and international passenger traffic returned to pre-COVID levels, with domestic travel making up 59% and international travel 41% of total traffic. In 2024, global domestic passenger traffic is expected to grow by 6% YoY, to reach 5.6 billion, while international passenger traffic is projected to see a stronger increase of 14%, to reach 3.8 billion. “Looking ahead, from 2024 to 2053, domestic passenger traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%, whereas international traffic is expected to expand at a faster pace of 3.3%, underscoring the stronger long-term growth potential of international markets,” said ACI.